Today's Edition
A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
The UAE is expected to maintain robust fiscal health, with projections indicating consistent budget surpluses every year until 2030.
In its Fiscal Monitor report published on Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a positive outlook for the UAE’s public finances over the coming years. The data is outlined under the table titled 'General Government Overall Balance for Emerging Economies.'
According to the IMF, the UAE recorded an overall budget surplus of 4.8% of GDP in 2024. The “overall balance” in budget terms accounts for all government expenditure, including interest payments on debt. This contrasts with the “primary balance,” which measures the fiscal position excluding interest payments.
Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts that the UAE will achieve an overall budget surplus of 2.9% of GDP in 2025. The surplus is projected to remain at 2.9% in 2026, then gradually improve to 3.2% in 2027, 3.5% in 2028, 3.8% in 2029, and 4% in 2030.
These fiscal projections are drawn from the same dataset used in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report. According to the Fund, its economists prepare country-specific forecasts based on the assumption that announced policy measures will be implemented, following the guidelines of the World Economic Outlook.
The IMF also noted that the UAE’s fiscal reporting includes federal and local government finances, as well as social security funds, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the public sector.
The fiscal report follows the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, released two days earlier, which projected the UAE’s real GDP growth at 4% in 2025, rising to 5% in 2026.
