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A.SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
The UAE is set to become a central force in global gas production alongside other Gulf nations, according to the latest research by Rystad Energy.
With major capacity expansions underway, the UAE joins Qatar and Saudi Arabia in driving the Middle East’s gas boom—transforming the region into a global energy powerhouse.
According to Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, the UAE’s gas production is expected to rise by 45%, from 6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 to 9 Bcf/d in 2030.
“This production surge is as per ADNOC’s stated target to become gas self-sufficient by 2030,” Bhardwaj told Aletihad. “With the flurry of recent gas expansion projects at Hail & Ghasha, Ras Al Sadr, ADNOC Onshore, and others, this growth will be firmly underpinned.”
The Ruwais LNG project remains at the centre of the UAE’s ambitions, expected to add 10 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG capacity.
ADNOC has signed various LNG supply and purchase agreements for the 9.6 Mtpa Ruwais and 6 Mtpa Das LNG. Since December 2024, the company has secured around 5.3 Mtpa of long-term LNG contracts with global partners including Osaka Gas, Petronas, and Germany’s SEFE Securing Energy for Europe.
“To date, over 8 Mtpa of Ruwais’s 9.6 Mtpa capacity has been committed through long-term agreements,” Bhardwaj noted.
Overall, the Middle East is on track to surpass Asia in 2025 as the world’s second-largest gas-producing region—behind only North America.
Current output across the region is approximately 70 Bcf/d, projected to rise to 90 Bcfd by 2030 and 94 Bcf/d by 2035. This growth is underpinned by developments in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Oman.
“About half of the 20 Bcf/d new supply will meet rising domestic demand, particularly from industrial users, while the rest will be available for export,” Bhardwaj said. “The Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas.”
The UAE is targeting more than 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in gas developments, with total investments exceeding $40 billion. Around half of that—$20 billion—is earmarked for the Ghasha Concession, one of the UAE’s flagship gas initiatives.
“Approximately 70% of the 10 billion boe pipeline features breakeven costs below $5 per thousand cubic feet, ensuring robust economics across diverse price environments,” said Bhardwaj.
Even as global energy prices fluctuate, the Middle East’s gas projects remain cost-competitive. Rystad Energy highlighted that the region’s gas breakeven prices typically fall below $5, offering resilience even in prolonged low-price environments.
“Even in a prolonged low-price environment, we expect strong production growth from the region,” said Rahul Choudhary, Vice President at Rystad Energy.
By 2028, the region is expected to add 60 Mtpa of new LNG capacity, led by Qatar’s 48 Mtpa North Field expansion, followed by developments in the UAE and Oman. Combined, these projects are expected to attract over $50 billion in investment.
While Iran is currently the largest gas producer in the region at 25 Bcf/d, its output is projected to rise modestly to 26 Bcf/d. Qatar, with current production at 16 Bcf/d, is expected to overtake Iran in the early 2030s. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are each set to contribute an additional 3 Bcf/d.
“The UAE and Qatar are undertaking substantial capacity expansions, further cementing the region's role as a future powerhouse in global LNG trade,” Rystad Energy’s research said.
