Today's Edition
GENEVA (ALETIHAD)
Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
There is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). Additionally, there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
There is a forecast 70 per cent chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C, according to the report. This is up from 47 per cent in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32 per cent in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period.
The report warned that every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is predicted to be more than three and a half times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020).
The report highlights that predictions of sea ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions for this season over the Amazon.
Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been wetter than average and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” she added.
