Today's Edition
By Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali*
The Middle East is a region that rarely finds calm before slipping back into tension. Over the past two years, the intensity of the escalation has increased sharply, with no clear path to sustainable de-escalation.
The proliferation of conflicts, the emergence of competing actors and contradictory objectives, along with mounting human suffering and economic strain, have created a growing sense of uncertainty. This uncertainty hit a new high on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched strikes on Iran, ushering in a dangerous new chapter in a region already divided and unstable.
Even though there had been indications of a potential confrontation between Israel and Iran, especially with the ongoing war in Gaza since October 7, 2023, the weakening of Iran’s regional proxies, advances in Iran’s nuclear programme (according to both Tel Aviv and the International Atomic Energy Agency), and tense US-Iran nuclear negotiations risking the threat of war, the scale of the Israeli escalation, targeting nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s response following the killing of top commanders came as a shock.
The predictions are that the war will be brief, as its continuation means it would spread, perhaps to other fronts in the region.
The longer the war drags on and expands geographically, the more likely it is that the sound of drones and fighter jets will eclipse diplomacy and political dialogue.
The possibility of the conflict engulfing the entire region increases if containment efforts fail. As a result, growth forecasts have dimmed, and states have turned to policies aimed at shielding their economies from shocks in the hope of maintaining stability.
Trade and tourism have been affected. Furthermore, the political and economic fallout will not be limited only to combat zones and neighbouring nations, but it will also threaten the entire region and perhaps the world if the situation spirals out of control - a possibility that cannot be ruled out.
Energy and financial markets cannot remain stable in a constantly volatile environment, especially when warfare is no longer bound by borders. Some may have found solace in the fact that in the last two years, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, or US strikes in Yemen, did not cause major disruptions. But if the current pace of escalation continues, the region may soon face severe turmoil in the energy markets, not to mention further human and material losses.
The future of the Middle East now hinges on political settlements to its many conflicts, as well as on the regional and international arrangements that will follow.
The region’s long-term stability depends on its ability to develop a model of security and economic cooperation that promotes prosperity, not destruction, and that preserves the wealth of nations rather than squandering it on endless wars.
There is no shortage of crises in the Middle East. The priority for countries should be to focus on economic development and the wellbeing of their people, not on wars that resolve no crisis and settle no dispute.
Military force alone will not resolve long-standing issues. Many countries in the region face deep political, economic and security challenges that will take years of sustained effort to overcome. Yet there are also ambitious states working for the progress of their people and the wider region. These countries are determined not to let instability derail their aspirations for progress in all fields.
Geopolitical tensions continue to paralyse the region and obstruct cross-border development projects.
Global powers have shown only limited commitment to promoting peace and stability in the Middle East. As a result, there is a significant risk that the conflict will spread from one country to another.
What is spared today may not be spared tomorrow, especially if the same international standards continue to govern responses to crises in the region.
Indeed, the competing agendas of global powers often reflect broader rivalries, further complicating the path to peace.
The current conflict points to significant shifts in the regional balance of power, especially if the confrontation between Israel and Iran escalates further, resulting in a nuclear incident, or Iran does battle on multiple regional fronts.
What makes the situation even more dangerous is that neither a decisive victory nor a surrender appears likely. It won’t be the last round, even if this one does end.
Regardless of the justifications offered by either side, being drawn into a full-scale regional war or tipping the regional balance of power too far in favour of a certain side will only harm the Middle East as a whole.
A prolonged war could worsen economic instability in the region and globally, fuel uncertainty, and undermine development efforts.
Peace, by contrast, offers a path to prosperity for the people of the region. But real stability requires more than just halting wars. It demands a new approach to resolving conflicts, an approach that is based on negotiation and diplomacy.
*The writer is the CEO of think tank TRENDS Research & Advisory
